Monday, January 5, 2009
Time for Joe-Pa to Go
Monday, December 1, 2008
BCS Breakdown: Myths, Truths, and Predictions
The Rules:
Automatic Berths:
1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.
At this point, that would be: Oklahoma (provided they win the Big 12 Championship game) and the winner of Alabama vs. Florida. If Oklahoma were to lose the Big 12 Championship, then either Texas, USC, or maybe even Alabama (if they were to lose in a really close game) would move up into the National Championship Game. Most likely it will be Oklahoma or Texas (if OU loses) vs. Alabama/Florida (whoever wins).
2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls after the 2008 through 2013 regular seasons.
ACC: Boston College and Virginia Tech will play for the ACC title Saturday at noon
Big East: Cincinnati has won the Big East, and they will go to the Orange, Fiesta, or Sugar Bowl (most likely the Orange Bowl)
Big Ten: Penn State has won the Big Ten, and will play in the Rose Bowl
Big 12: Oklahoma plays Missouri for the Big 12 Title at 7 on Saturday
Pac-10: USC has won the Pac-10 and will play Penn State in the Rose Bowl, if they do not finish 1 0r 2 in the BCS Standings (in which case they would go to the National Championship)
SEC: Florida and Alabam play for the SEC title Saturday at 3. The winner of this game will almost certainly go to the National Championship game.
3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. They are ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. They are ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and are ranked higher than the champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.
This part is interesting because currently Utah (#6), Boise State (#9), TCU (#11), and Ball State (#12) all satisfy these requirements. However, only one of the teams earns the automatic berth, and as none play any more games, the automatic berth will go to Utah.
This leaves us with our 6 BCS conference winners (2 0f which will play in the National Championship, most likely Big 12 and SEC), and Utah. This means that there are 3 at-large selections up for grabs.
At Large:
In order for a team to qualify for an at-large bid, they must meet both of the following requirements:
A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.
Now, I'm saying that Florida/Alabama winner and Oklahoma/USC (if OU loses) will play in the National Championship game, so the following teams qualify for an at-large bid (remember, 3 are available):
Alabama/Florida loser, Oklahoma (only if they lose to Mizzou), Texas, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Ball State
1. SEC
Alabama is #1 in the country currently, so if they beat Florida, it's the National Championship, and if they lose, it's a BCS game. Status: Definitely In
Florida is #4 in the country, and only that bad due to their ranking in the computers (#6). If they beat 'Bama, they're in the Title game, and if they lose, they'll be in a BCS game. Status: Definitely In
That leaves 2 spots left (as one of those teams gets the automatic, and one gets at-large).
2. Big 12
Oklahoma is #2 in the country, and if they can hold off Mizzou, they'll be in the BCS Championship game, if not, Mizzou will get the automatic bid from the Big 12, and Texas will get the at-large bid, and due to the 2 team-only BCS Rule, they wouldn't get in.
Texas is #3 in the country, and will not go to the NCG (National Championship Game) because they didn't win their conference, but they'll get into a BCS. Status: Definitely In
Texas Tech would be in, due to their high ranking (#7), but only 2 teams from each conference are allowed in the BCS, so they're out. Same thing with Oklahoma State.
That leaves 1 spot:
3. Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Ball State
You tell me who's gonna get the at-large bid (hint: the answer starts with a Buckeyes)
Scenarios:
Oklahoma beats Missouri, Alabama beats Florida
BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC
Oklahoma beats Missouri, Florida beats Alabama
BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC
Oklahoma LOSES to Missouri, Alabama beats Florida
BCS Title Game: USC vs. Alabama
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Mizzou
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas
Oklahoma LOSES to Missouri, Florida beats Alabama
BCS Title Game: USC vs. Florida
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Mizzou
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas
Reality:
Oklahoma will beat Missouri, and Florida will beat Alabama, BC will win the ACC, so...
BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC
Simple, right?
Pick 'Em Standings (after week 6)
1. Mike: 17-13-1
1. Hankin: 17-13-1
3. Gordie: 10-20-1
College Pick 'Em:
1. Mike: 17-9-2
2. Hankin: 14-12-2
3. Gordie: 13-13-2
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Week 6 Pick 'Em (NFL Week 13)
Mike: 14-7-2
Hankin: 12-9-2
Gordie: 9-12-2
Florida (-17) at Florida State
Mike: Florida
Gordie: Florida
Hankin: Florida
Oregon at Oregon State (-3)
Mike: Oregon
Gordie: Oregon
Hankin: Oregon State
Auburn at Alabama (-15)
Mike: Auburn
Gordie: Alabama
Hankin: Auburn
Oklahoma (-8.5) at Oklahoma State
Mike: Oklahoma
Gordie: Oklahoma State
Hankin: Oklahoma
Notre Dame at USC (-32.5)
Mike: Notre Dame (C'mon, 32 points!, but they will lose)
Gordie: USC
Hankin: Notre Dame
NFL Pick 'Em
Mike: 14-11-1
Hankin: 13-12-1
Gordie: 9-16-1
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-4)
Mike: New Orleans
Gordie: Tampa Bay
Hankin: New Orleans
Pittsburgh at New England (-1)
Mike: New England
Gordie: New England
Hankin: Pittsburgh
Chicago at Minnesota (-3)
Mike: Chicago
Gordie: Chicago
Hankin: Chicago
Denver at NYJ (-8)
Mike: Denver
Gordie: NYJ
Hankin: Denver
NYG (-4) at Washington
Mike: NYG
Gordie: NYG
Hankin: NYG
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Response to Hankin's Response to Hermanson's Rankings
Gordie's Top 5 Teams
#5 USC
#4 Texas
#3 Florida
#2 Oklahoma
#1 Alabama
The Crimson Tide will play the Gators in 2 weeks the winner of that game will be in the National Championship. The rest is going to be settled in the next 2 weeks look for fluctuating rankings over the course of the remainder of the season.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Response to Herm's Standings
College Football writters are "what have you done for me lately?" types of people but lets hope the BCS computers are not like that either. The writters are forgetting that TEXAS BEAT OKLAHOMA, on a natural site. Not only that but if the Texas defensive backs could've tackled Michael Crabtree on the last play of the Tech game let alone shove him out of bounds, they would be the undisputed number 1.
2-Alabama
Bama' does not have the star player that Florida or Oklahoma has which hurts their publicity. However, they do have a star on the sidelines, Nick Saban. Bama is 8th in the country in penalties and 6 for 6 on 4th Down conversions, that is what I call coaching. Bama is not blowing out teams but remember you play to win the game and that is what Bama is doing.
3-Florida
Florida has not beaten a team in the current top 10.
4-USC
Hard to argue against a team giving up 7.7ppg!
BCS Standings: Mike Hermanson Style
Florida is one point away from being undefeated, and the indisputable heavyweight champions of the world. After their 31-30 loss to Mississippi (who just beat #18 LSU by 18), the Gators are 7-0, outscoring their opponents 369-82 (an average win of 52-12) against 5 winning teams, three who were in the top 25, including a #6 Georgia and a #4 LSU (with wins of 39 and 30 points, respectively). Tim Tebow is making a run towards another Heisman, with 33 total TD, and a 175.19 passer rating, better than his rating last year. Florida faces #20 Florida State next week at Florida State, and then will play in the SEC Championship game against Alabama. If they win both games (where they will be favored to win), they will definitely make it to the National Championship.
2. Oklahoma (10-1, 6-1 Big 12 South)
The Sooners played the most impressive game of the year Saturday, in my opinion. They absolutely obliterated the #2 team in the country, who was coming off big wins at Texas and Oklahoma State. Sam Bradford's stats this year are Heisman-worthy, and he's going to be one of the top contenders for the trophy. Bradford has 42 TD compared to just 6 INT. We know they have a terrific offense (1st in scoring in the NCAA), and after shutting down the Red Raiders Saturday, we know the defense is for real. Their only blemish is a 45-35 loss to Texas. Besides the win over TTU, they don't have any real championship teams on their schedule (TCU is the best, and they play in the Mountain West). They've got Oklahoma State this weekend, and they need to win BIG again in order to show they belong at the top, and that the loss to Texas was the fluke, not the win versus Texas Tech.
3. Alabama (11-0, 7-0 SEC West)
You're probably surprised to see the #1 team in the country (according to the polls) at number 3 on my list. The fact is that any team that goes through the SEC (arguably the best conference in football) undefeated deserves the #1 ranking, in many cases. However, the only impressive win the Crimson Tide have is a beating of then-#3 Georgia, who we now know to be overrated. They had close calls against LSU, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and I'm just not confident in them being a contender for the title. They play at Auburn this weekend, a rivalry that is terrific, and the game is never a gimme for either team. They are favored to win, and then will play Florida in the SEC Championship. A win against Florida may be enough for the Crimson Tide to get in, even if they were to lose against Auburn, but most likely they'll have to win them both.
4. USC (9-1, 7-1 Pac-10)
The Trojans controlled their own destiny back in September, when they were #1 in the country after beating Ohio State 35-3. But then they lost to Oregon State. Now, the Trojans are just waiting for some team in front of them to collapse so they can get into the National Title picture. Since the lose to Oregon State, the Trojans have 3 shutouts, and are showing a defense that is arguably best in the country. Games against Notre Dame and UCLA should be gimmes, but they most likely will need Oregon State to slip up or the National Title probably won't be a possibility. How could a team win the National Championship, but not win the Conference? We saw the same thing with Georgia last year when they didn't win the SEC.
5. Texas (10-1, 6-1 Big 12 South)
The Longhorns are most likely going to be in the BCS National Championship game if they can just beat Texas A&M and Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They're currently #2 in the BCS, and they have quality wins against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. However, they were beat by Texas Tech, the one blemish in their schedule. It's hard to make a case for Texas or Oklahoma, even though Texas beat Oklahoma, because Oklahoma killed Texas Tech who beat Texas. It's all up to the voters at this point, and Oklahoma and Texas will most likely be running up the scores, and trying to make their case for a National Championship bid (so long as whoever plays in the Big 12 Championship beats Missouri).
6. Penn State (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
The only good win on Penn State's schedule was last week against Michigan State, hardly a top-tier team. However, the Nittany Lions won a major conference, and can most likely play with any team in the country.
17. Utah (12-0, 8-0 Moutain West)
I'm not buying into the Utes. They've beaten one above .500 team from a major conference, Oregon State. They beat an awful Michigan team by 2, and TCU and BYU, both mediocre teams as well. I'm looking forward to the BCS bowl game that features Utah, and I hope they prove me wrong, but I'm waiting for Utah to turn into this year's Hawaii.
21. Northwestern (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten)
I'm a little biased towards the 'Cats, but they had a phenomenal year, only the 5th time they've won 9 games in a year. They could be getting into a January Bowl Game for the first time since the Rose Bowl in 1996. Let's go Cats!
99. Notre Dame (6-5)
The Irish are going to cap off a terrible season with a loss to USC and a loss to Syracuse. 6-6, but I'm sure they'll get into a bowl game. Once again, they'll be looking to next year, as they can never seem to make it happen this year. Charlie Weis showed why he's the most overpaid human in the world, and he will have some serious work to do this off-season.
106. Michigan (3-9, 2-6 Big Ten)
Michigan vs. Maine South is the only matchup we should be talking about when it comes to Michigan. Even the Wolverines would have trouble with the Hawks of Maine South, who look to win the 8A Football Title this weekend. The Wolverines had literally the worst season in the history of the school. Rich Rodriguez is also going to need to make some drastic improvements over the off-season, or he might be in search of a job again.
119. Washington (0-11, 0-8 Pac-10)
They were so close!! They took Washington State into overtime, and lost, so close to their first win of the year. Overall, the strong, top-25 team of 4 years ago is long gone, and the Huskies get my pick as the worst team in FBS.