The Rules:
Automatic Berths:
1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.
At this point, that would be: Oklahoma (provided they win the Big 12 Championship game) and the winner of Alabama vs. Florida. If Oklahoma were to lose the Big 12 Championship, then either Texas, USC, or maybe even Alabama (if they were to lose in a really close game) would move up into the National Championship Game. Most likely it will be Oklahoma or Texas (if OU loses) vs. Alabama/Florida (whoever wins).
2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls after the 2008 through 2013 regular seasons.
ACC: Boston College and Virginia Tech will play for the ACC title Saturday at noon
Big East: Cincinnati has won the Big East, and they will go to the Orange, Fiesta, or Sugar Bowl (most likely the Orange Bowl)
Big Ten: Penn State has won the Big Ten, and will play in the Rose Bowl
Big 12: Oklahoma plays Missouri for the Big 12 Title at 7 on Saturday
Pac-10: USC has won the Pac-10 and will play Penn State in the Rose Bowl, if they do not finish 1 0r 2 in the BCS Standings (in which case they would go to the National Championship)
SEC: Florida and Alabam play for the SEC title Saturday at 3. The winner of this game will almost certainly go to the National Championship game.
3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. They are ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. They are ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and are ranked higher than the champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.
This part is interesting because currently Utah (#6), Boise State (#9), TCU (#11), and Ball State (#12) all satisfy these requirements. However, only one of the teams earns the automatic berth, and as none play any more games, the automatic berth will go to Utah.
This leaves us with our 6 BCS conference winners (2 0f which will play in the National Championship, most likely Big 12 and SEC), and Utah. This means that there are 3 at-large selections up for grabs.
At Large:
In order for a team to qualify for an at-large bid, they must meet both of the following requirements:
A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.
Now, I'm saying that Florida/Alabama winner and Oklahoma/USC (if OU loses) will play in the National Championship game, so the following teams qualify for an at-large bid (remember, 3 are available):
Alabama/Florida loser, Oklahoma (only if they lose to Mizzou), Texas, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Ball State
1. SEC
Alabama is #1 in the country currently, so if they beat Florida, it's the National Championship, and if they lose, it's a BCS game. Status: Definitely In
Florida is #4 in the country, and only that bad due to their ranking in the computers (#6). If they beat 'Bama, they're in the Title game, and if they lose, they'll be in a BCS game. Status: Definitely In
That leaves 2 spots left (as one of those teams gets the automatic, and one gets at-large).
2. Big 12
Oklahoma is #2 in the country, and if they can hold off Mizzou, they'll be in the BCS Championship game, if not, Mizzou will get the automatic bid from the Big 12, and Texas will get the at-large bid, and due to the 2 team-only BCS Rule, they wouldn't get in.
Texas is #3 in the country, and will not go to the NCG (National Championship Game) because they didn't win their conference, but they'll get into a BCS. Status: Definitely In
Texas Tech would be in, due to their high ranking (#7), but only 2 teams from each conference are allowed in the BCS, so they're out. Same thing with Oklahoma State.
That leaves 1 spot:
3. Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Ball State
You tell me who's gonna get the at-large bid (hint: the answer starts with a Buckeyes)
Scenarios:
Oklahoma beats Missouri, Alabama beats Florida
BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC
Oklahoma beats Missouri, Florida beats Alabama
BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC
Oklahoma LOSES to Missouri, Alabama beats Florida
BCS Title Game: USC vs. Alabama
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Mizzou
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas
Oklahoma LOSES to Missouri, Florida beats Alabama
BCS Title Game: USC vs. Florida
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Mizzou
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas
Reality:
Oklahoma will beat Missouri, and Florida will beat Alabama, BC will win the ACC, so...
BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah
FedEx Orange Bowl: BC vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC
Simple, right?
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