BCS Breakdown: Myths, Truths, and Predictions

As the regular season in college football is over for almost all teams, conference championship week, for a select few teams, is all that is left before bowl season. Now, there are five BCS Games, including the BCS National Championship game, which means 10 teams will go to a BCS game.

The Rules:

Automatic Berths:

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.

At this point, that would be: Oklahoma (provided they win the Big 12 Championship game) and the winner of Alabama vs. Florida. If Oklahoma were to lose the Big 12 Championship, then either Texas, USC, or maybe even Alabama (if they were to lose in a really close game) would move up into the National Championship Game. Most likely it will be Oklahoma or Texas (if OU loses) vs. Alabama/Florida (whoever wins).

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls after the 2008 through 2013 regular seasons.

ACC: Boston College and Virginia Tech will play for the ACC title Saturday at noon

Big East: Cincinnati has won the Big East, and they will go to the Orange, Fiesta, or Sugar Bowl (most likely the Orange Bowl)

Big Ten: Penn State has won the Big Ten, and will play in the Rose Bowl

Big 12: Oklahoma plays Missouri for the Big 12 Title at 7 on Saturday

Pac-10: USC has won the Pac-10 and will play Penn State in the Rose Bowl, if they do not finish 1 0r 2 in the BCS Standings (in which case they would go to the National Championship)

SEC: Florida and Alabam play for the SEC title Saturday at 3. The winner of this game will almost certainly go to the National Championship game.

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. They are ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. They are ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and are ranked higher than the champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.

This part is interesting because currently Utah (#6), Boise State (#9), TCU (#11), and Ball State (#12) all satisfy these requirements. However, only one of the teams earns the automatic berth, and as none play any more games, the automatic berth will go to Utah.

This leaves us with our 6 BCS conference winners (2 0f which will play in the National Championship, most likely Big 12 and SEC), and Utah. This means that there are 3 at-large selections up for grabs.

At Large:

In order for a team to qualify for an at-large bid, they must meet both of the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

Now, I'm saying that Florida/Alabama winner and Oklahoma/USC (if OU loses) will play in the National Championship game, so the following teams qualify for an at-large bid (remember, 3 are available):

Alabama/Florida loser, Oklahoma (only if they lose to Mizzou), Texas, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Ball State

1. SEC

Alabama is #1 in the country currently, so if they beat Florida, it's the National Championship, and if they lose, it's a BCS game. Status: Definitely In

Florida is #4 in the country, and only that bad due to their ranking in the computers (#6). If they beat 'Bama, they're in the Title game, and if they lose, they'll be in a BCS game. Status: Definitely In

That leaves 2 spots left (as one of those teams gets the automatic, and one gets at-large).

2. Big 12

Oklahoma is #2 in the country, and if they can hold off Mizzou, they'll be in the BCS Championship game, if not, Mizzou will get the automatic bid from the Big 12, and Texas will get the at-large bid, and due to the 2 team-only BCS Rule, they wouldn't get in.

Texas is #3 in the country, and will not go to the NCG (National Championship Game) because they didn't win their conference, but they'll get into a BCS. Status: Definitely In

Texas Tech would be in, due to their high ranking (#7), but only 2 teams from each conference are allowed in the BCS, so they're out. Same thing with Oklahoma State.

That leaves 1 spot:

3. Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Ball State

You tell me who's gonna get the at-large bid (hint: the answer starts with a Buckeyes)

Scenarios:

Oklahoma beats Missouri, Alabama beats Florida

BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah

FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC

Oklahoma beats Missouri, Florida beats Alabama

BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah

FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC

Oklahoma LOSES to Missouri, Alabama beats Florida

BCS Title Game: USC vs. Alabama

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Mizzou

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Utah

FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas

Oklahoma LOSES to Missouri, Florida beats Alabama

BCS Title Game: USC vs. Florida

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Mizzou

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah

FedEx Orange Bowl: BC/VaTech vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas

Reality:

Oklahoma will beat Missouri, and Florida will beat Alabama, BC will win the ACC, so...

BCS Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Florida

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Utah

FedEx Orange Bowl: BC vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC

Simple, right?

Pick 'Em Standings (after week 6)

NFL Pick 'Em:

1. Mike: 17-13-1
1. Hankin: 17-13-1
3. Gordie: 10-20-1

College Pick 'Em:

1. Mike: 17-9-2
2. Hankin: 14-12-2
3. Gordie: 13-13-2

Week 6 Pick 'Em (NFL Week 13)

College Pick 'Em
Mike: 14-7-2
Hankin: 12-9-2
Gordie: 9-12-2

Florida (-17) at Florida State

Mike: Florida
Gordie: Florida
Hankin: Florida

Oregon at Oregon State (-3)

Mike: Oregon
Gordie: Oregon
Hankin: Oregon State

Auburn at Alabama (-15)

Mike: Auburn
Gordie: Alabama
Hankin: Auburn

Oklahoma (-8.5) at Oklahoma State

Mike: Oklahoma
Gordie: Oklahoma State
Hankin: Oklahoma

Notre Dame at USC (-32.5)

Mike: Notre Dame (C'mon, 32 points!, but they will lose)
Gordie: USC
Hankin: Notre Dame


NFL Pick 'Em
Mike: 14-11-1
Hankin: 13-12-1
Gordie: 9-16-1

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-4)

Mike: New Orleans
Gordie: Tampa Bay
Hankin: New Orleans

Pittsburgh at New England (-1)

Mike: New England
Gordie: New England
Hankin: Pittsburgh

Chicago at Minnesota (-3)

Mike: Chicago
Gordie: Chicago
Hankin: Chicago

Denver at NYJ (-8)

Mike: Denver
Gordie: NYJ
Hankin: Denver

NYG (-4) at Washington

Mike: NYG
Gordie: NYG
Hankin: NYG

Response to Hankin's Response to Hermanson's Rankings

Mr. Hankin Texas isn't better than Oklahoma. Ya, Okay, Texas beat Oklahoma but that doesn't mean a team is always better. Let's look back to 1980 during the Olympics when the Men's US Hockey team beat the Soviet Union Hockey team who had won 42 games before they played each other. Obviously the Soviet team was better but the US still managed to win. Yes, I don't think there is that big of a difference between Oklahoma and Texas but it is the same point. I think Oklahoma deserves to be #2 in the nation and Texas #3. Last Saturday was the best showing of any college football team I have ever watched. The way they dominated Texas Tech's offense and defense was unbelievable. I have never been so shocked and impressed by anything in my entire life (maybe only thing I've been more shocked by was my 92% on my math test). Texas Tech was the 3rd ranked offense and Oklahoma's defense made them look like Illinois... just terrible. Also, Alabama deserves to be #1 although I don't think they are the best.
Gordie's Top 5 Teams
#5 USC
#4 Texas
#3 Florida
#2 Oklahoma
#1 Alabama

The Crimson Tide will play the Gators in 2 weeks the winner of that game will be in the National Championship. The rest is going to be settled in the next 2 weeks look for fluctuating rankings over the course of the remainder of the season.

Response to Herm's Standings

1-Texas, the top team in the top conference

College Football writters are "what have you done for me lately?" types of people but lets hope the BCS computers are not like that either. The writters are forgetting that TEXAS BEAT OKLAHOMA, on a natural site. Not only that but if the Texas defensive backs could've tackled Michael Crabtree on the last play of the Tech game let alone shove him out of bounds, they would be the undisputed number 1.

2-Alabama

Bama' does not have the star player that Florida or Oklahoma has which hurts their publicity. However, they do have a star on the sidelines, Nick Saban. Bama is 8th in the country in penalties and 6 for 6 on 4th Down conversions, that is what I call coaching. Bama is not blowing out teams but remember you play to win the game and that is what Bama is doing.

3-Florida

Florida has not beaten a team in the current top 10.

4-USC

Hard to argue against a team giving up 7.7ppg!

BCS Standings: Mike Hermanson Style

1. Florida (10-1, 7-1 SEC East)

Florida is one point away from being undefeated, and the indisputable heavyweight champions of the world. After their 31-30 loss to Mississippi (who just beat #18 LSU by 18), the Gators are 7-0, outscoring their opponents 369-82 (an average win of 52-12) against 5 winning teams, three who were in the top 25, including a #6 Georgia and a #4 LSU (with wins of 39 and 30 points, respectively). Tim Tebow is making a run towards another Heisman, with 33 total TD, and a 175.19 passer rating, better than his rating last year. Florida faces #20 Florida State next week at Florida State, and then will play in the SEC Championship game against Alabama. If they win both games (where they will be favored to win), they will definitely make it to the National Championship.

2. Oklahoma (10-1, 6-1 Big 12 South)

The Sooners played the most impressive game of the year Saturday, in my opinion. They absolutely obliterated the #2 team in the country, who was coming off big wins at Texas and Oklahoma State. Sam Bradford's stats this year are Heisman-worthy, and he's going to be one of the top contenders for the trophy. Bradford has 42 TD compared to just 6 INT. We know they have a terrific offense (1st in scoring in the NCAA), and after shutting down the Red Raiders Saturday, we know the defense is for real. Their only blemish is a 45-35 loss to Texas. Besides the win over TTU, they don't have any real championship teams on their schedule (TCU is the best, and they play in the Mountain West). They've got Oklahoma State this weekend, and they need to win BIG again in order to show they belong at the top, and that the loss to Texas was the fluke, not the win versus Texas Tech.

3. Alabama (11-0, 7-0 SEC West)

You're probably surprised to see the #1 team in the country (according to the polls) at number 3 on my list. The fact is that any team that goes through the SEC (arguably the best conference in football) undefeated deserves the #1 ranking, in many cases. However, the only impressive win the Crimson Tide have is a beating of then-#3 Georgia, who we now know to be overrated. They had close calls against LSU, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and I'm just not confident in them being a contender for the title. They play at Auburn this weekend, a rivalry that is terrific, and the game is never a gimme for either team. They are favored to win, and then will play Florida in the SEC Championship. A win against Florida may be enough for the Crimson Tide to get in, even if they were to lose against Auburn, but most likely they'll have to win them both.

4. USC (9-1, 7-1 Pac-10)

The Trojans controlled their own destiny back in September, when they were #1 in the country after beating Ohio State 35-3. But then they lost to Oregon State. Now, the Trojans are just waiting for some team in front of them to collapse so they can get into the National Title picture. Since the lose to Oregon State, the Trojans have 3 shutouts, and are showing a defense that is arguably best in the country. Games against Notre Dame and UCLA should be gimmes, but they most likely will need Oregon State to slip up or the National Title probably won't be a possibility. How could a team win the National Championship, but not win the Conference? We saw the same thing with Georgia last year when they didn't win the SEC.

5. Texas (10-1, 6-1 Big 12 South)

The Longhorns are most likely going to be in the BCS National Championship game if they can just beat Texas A&M and Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They're currently #2 in the BCS, and they have quality wins against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. However, they were beat by Texas Tech, the one blemish in their schedule. It's hard to make a case for Texas or Oklahoma, even though Texas beat Oklahoma, because Oklahoma killed Texas Tech who beat Texas. It's all up to the voters at this point, and Oklahoma and Texas will most likely be running up the scores, and trying to make their case for a National Championship bid (so long as whoever plays in the Big 12 Championship beats Missouri).

6. Penn State (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten)

The only good win on Penn State's schedule was last week against Michigan State, hardly a top-tier team. However, the Nittany Lions won a major conference, and can most likely play with any team in the country.

17. Utah (12-0, 8-0 Moutain West)

I'm not buying into the Utes. They've beaten one above .500 team from a major conference, Oregon State. They beat an awful Michigan team by 2, and TCU and BYU, both mediocre teams as well. I'm looking forward to the BCS bowl game that features Utah, and I hope they prove me wrong, but I'm waiting for Utah to turn into this year's Hawaii.

21. Northwestern (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten)

I'm a little biased towards the 'Cats, but they had a phenomenal year, only the 5th time they've won 9 games in a year. They could be getting into a January Bowl Game for the first time since the Rose Bowl in 1996. Let's go Cats!

99. Notre Dame (6-5)

The Irish are going to cap off a terrible season with a loss to USC and a loss to Syracuse. 6-6, but I'm sure they'll get into a bowl game. Once again, they'll be looking to next year, as they can never seem to make it happen this year. Charlie Weis showed why he's the most overpaid human in the world, and he will have some serious work to do this off-season.

106. Michigan (3-9, 2-6 Big Ten)

Michigan vs. Maine South is the only matchup we should be talking about when it comes to Michigan. Even the Wolverines would have trouble with the Hawks of Maine South, who look to win the 8A Football Title this weekend. The Wolverines had literally the worst season in the history of the school. Rich Rodriguez is also going to need to make some drastic improvements over the off-season, or he might be in search of a job again.

119. Washington (0-11, 0-8 Pac-10)

They were so close!! They took Washington State into overtime, and lost, so close to their first win of the year. Overall, the strong, top-25 team of 4 years ago is long gone, and the Huskies get my pick as the worst team in FBS.

Pick 'Em Standings

After the conclusion of NFL Week 12, and 5 weeks of Pick 'Em, the standings are as followed:

NFL Pick 'Em:

1. Mike: 14-11-1
2. Hankin: 13-12-1
3. Gordie: 9-16-1

College Pick 'Em

1. Mike: 14-7-2
2. Hankin: 12-9-2
3. Gordie: 9-12-2

Week 5 Cycle

Top College Sports Nicknames

Single:

Gordie: University of Alaska-Southeast Humpback Whales
Mike: Ohio Wesleyan Battlin' Bishops
Hankin: Syracuse Orange

Double:

Gordie: Akron Zips
Mike: UC-Santa Cruz Banana Slugs
Hankin: The Ohio State University-Lima Barons

Triple:

Gordie: UC-Irvine Anteaters
Mike: Northland College Lumberjills (women's sports)
Hankin: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Home Run:

Gordie: New Trier Trevians
Mike: Arkansas Tech Wonder Boys
Hankin: Illinois Figting Illini (Chief Illiniwek 1926-2007 R.I.P)

Preseason Top 5

Number 1- North Carolina

"Tyler Hansbrough is the fiercest competitor I have ever seen and yes I played against Michael Jordan"-Jay Bilas. Hermanson strongly disagrees with those words, but I have to say that Bilas says it best. There is no doubt that Hansbrough's desire and ferocity are as big as the hype suggests. Last year, that ferocity, along with his talent, led North Carolina to a Final Four appearance where they lost to the national champions. All key players from last year's squad are back including speedy point guard Ty Lawson and smooth swingman Wayne Ellington. Lawson will be leading the signature Carolina fast break, which is effective in wearing down their opponents. Hansbrough will try to build off his 601 points from the charity stripe last year which led the nation. Pending any injuries, Roy Williams should have a second National Title at his alma mater.

Number 2- Louisville

While many writers have been quick to predict Connecticut as the Big East (the strongest Conference) Champs, let me remind you that they lost to San Diego in the first round of the tourney last year. On the other hand, Louisville enjoyed a trip to the Elite Eight where they lost to UNC. Their run included a signature win over Tennessee. The Cardinals are coached by one of the best in the business, Rick Pitino. Pitino's teams are known for their tight D: their opponents shot just 38% from the the field last season. Question marks this year for Louisville will be inside scoring after losing David Padgett. They did land top freshman Samardo Samuels to replace some of that scoring, however. Louisville will not lack guard play as 6 foot 9 ballhandler Earl Clark creates match up problems for any defense. He plays along sharpshooting guard Edgar Sosa. The Cardinals lack inside scoring but their guard play will make-up for it.

Up next, I will be studying for my Bio test so Conneticut, Duke and MSU (no particular Order) will have to wait for the weekend.

Alex Hankin

Week 5 Pick 'Em

NFL PICK EM
Mike: (10-10-1)
Gordie: (7-13-1)
Hankin: (10-10-1)

New York Jets at Tennessee (-5.5):
Mike: Jets
Gordie: Jets
Hankin: Titans
Chicago (-5) at St. Louis:
Mike: Bears
Gordie: Bears
Hankin: Bears
New England at Miami (-1):
Mike: Patriots
Gordie: Dolphins
Hankin: Patriots
New York Giants (-3.5) at Arizona:
Mike: Giants
Gordie: Cardinals
Hankin: Giants
Carolina at Atlanta (-1):
Mike: Panthers
Gordie: Panthers
Hankin: Panthers

COLLEGE PICK EM
Mike: (11-5-2)
Gordie: (6-10-2)
Hankin: (9-7-2)

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-7):
Mike: Texas Tech
Gordie: Texas Tech
Hankin: Oklahoma
Michigan State at Penn State (-13.5):
Mike: Penn State
Gordie: Michigan State
Hankin: Michigan State
BYU at Utah (-7):
Mike: Utah
Gordie: Utah
Hankin: Utah
Michigan at Ohio State (-21):
Mike: Michigan
Gordie: Ohio State
Hankin: Ohio State
Illinois (-3) at Northwestern:
Mike: Northwestern
Gordie: Northwestern
Hankin: Illinois

Week 12 NFL Preview

Games to Watch:

Panthers at Falcons (-1)

Injury Report

Panthers: LB Thomas Davis (71 tackles, 2 FF) Q
Falcons: WR Brian Finneran (13 rec, 109 yards) P

The Spin

Who ever would've thought the Panthers would be 8-2, and the NFC South would all be .500 or better? Not me, but don't be fooled by the Panthers' record: they've beaten two teams (Atlanta and Arizona) who are above .500. That said, the Panthers' tandem attack of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams has combined for 1295 yards and 12 touchdowns, and they rank 6th in rushing offense. However, the Falcons are even better. Michael Turner has been a Pro Bowler so far this year, with 971 yards and 9 touchdowns, ranking him third in the league in yards and 4th in touchdowns. Jerious Norwood is a good 2nd back, and has over 300 yards this year, as well. Jake Delhomme and his 9 interceptions shouldn't have much trouble agains the 22nd ranked Falcons pass defense, and Matt Ryan has been phenomenal all year. Everything is about even in this one, but the difference is going to be rush defense.

Players to Watch

Panthers: LB Jon Beason (84 tackles)
Falcons: RB Michael Turner (971 yds, 9 TD)

The Pick

The difference in this one is going to be the skill of Panther linebackers Beason, Davis, and Na'il Diggs (by the way, maybe my favorite name in the league, Nail), and the inability of Atlanta to mix up the run. The Panther's attack with Stewart and Williams will propel them to victory.
Panthers 31- Falcons 23


Jets at Titans (-5.5)

Injury Report

Jets: Healthy!
Titans: DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (15 tackles, 3 FF) Q

The Spin

The Jets have got to be the happiest team in the league. They're leading the division, beat the Patriots last week for only the second time in their last 13 tries, and they did it in Foxborough too. Now, they have an even tougher test in the undefeated Titans. The Titans are mystifying the sporting community at 10-0, with Kerry Collins leading the team (who would've thought Kerry Collins would be quarterbacking the top team in the league), an offense ranked 20th in the league in yards per game, and a defense ranked only 6th. They've been living on the edge in their last few games, beating Jacksonville by 10 (after trailing until the 4th), the terrible Bears by a touchdown, and Green Bay in overtime. I don't think there's any chance the Titans go undefeated this year, but most people have been saying that for four or five weeks now, and the Titans keep proving us wrong. That being said, they're still obviously a great team, and most likely the best in the league. Chris Johnson is in the running for Rookie of the Year, and their defense has been terrific. Kerry Collins shouldn't have trouble with the Jets defense that let Matt Cassel throw for 400 yards and 3 TD last week. For the Jets, Brett Favre's consistency has been a problem his whole career, and this year is no exception. The ex-Packer is 4th in the league with 18 TD's, but leads the league in picks (12). The Titans are 6th in pass defense, and I'm unsure about Brett Favre being able to lead the Jets against a team with one of the best coverage units around.

Players to Watch

Jets: Brett Favre (18 TD, 12 INT)
Titans: Lendale White (11 TD)

The Pick

The Titans have found a way to win every week so far this year, and they haven't always looked good doing it. I think that trend is going to continue. The Jets got away with bad defense last week, due to a great game by Favre. However, the Titans have a better pass defense that Favre's gonna have a tougher time with. They won't be able to bail out the defense by scoring 34 points. I think this one's going to be close (The Jets are still a great team), but look for the Titans to prevail. The spread on this one is 5 and a half, and I think that's gonna be right around what this game will be. The Titans proved last week they can pull away when the game's on the line, and the Jets almost choked a 24-6 lead. I think this one's going to be within a touchdown the entire game with the Titans ending on top by 6, just covering the spread.
Titans 27- Jets 21


Bears (-5) at Rams

Injury Report

Bears: The Bears are healthy, and expect Kyle Orton to start this week
Rams: OT Orlando Pace O; RB Steven Jackson (525 yds, 4 TD) O

The Spin

The badly-beaten-Bears (like the alliteration?) battle the 2-8 Rams this week, in St. Louis. Both teams are coming off humiliating losses last week: the Bears 37-3 to the .500 Packers while the Rams lost by 19 to the 3-7 49ers. If the Bears win, they're looking at staying at the top of the NFC North, and continuing their improbable run towards the playoffs. If the Rams win, they'll lose any shot at the 1st pick in the draft (so long as the Lions keep it up). Kyle Orton wasn't 100% last week, and it showed. Orton went 13-26 for 133 yards, his lowest completion percentage of the year, and his 2nd lowest yard production. Marc Bulger leads the Rams (yikes) with his 28th ranked passer rating. Bulger leads only Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Bengals and Jamarcus Russell of Oakland when it comes to being a good quarterback. With Steven Jackson out, the Rams will be forced to pass, and with starting OT Orlando Pace out, look for this Bears defense to pounce with pressure, forcing a bunch of turnovers, and getting some sacks. This Bears Defense will have a field day come Sunday.

Players to Watch

Bears: DE Alex Brown (25 tackles, 1FF, 3 sacks)
Rams: QB Marc Bulger (72.7 rating, 7 TD, 8 INT)

The Pick

The Bears' defense is going to look as good as they ever have, playing possibly the weakest offense in the NFL. Look for this defensive line to get pressure on Bulger, forcing him to make a lot of bad decisions. I can't see the Rams putting up many points, and I don't think the Bears offense will be great, but maybe they can find a way to feed off of the defense's success.
Bears 27- Rams 10


Patriots at Dolphins (-1)

Injury Report

Patriots: Tedy Bruschi (60 tackles) Q
Dolphins: Healthy

The Spin

At the end of last year, the Patriots were arguably the best team of all time in the NFL, and expected to repeat their success of the previous year. The Dolphins were 1-15, arguably the worst team of all time. Last year when the two teams played each other, Tom Brady threw a Patriots-record 6 TD passes, and had a perfect, let me say that again, PERFECT quarterback rating. Now, both teams are tied in the AFC East at 6-4, one game back of the Jets. And, get this, the Dolphins are favored. This is a tale of two seasons for both the Patriots and the Dolphins, who both need to win this game to stay in the hunt for the Division. The Dolphins have been led by a new, and improved, Chad Pennington, who has a QB rating of 92.8, good enough for 7th in the league. Pennington has 8 receivers he's looked to this year, with Greg Camarillo and Ted Ginn Jr. getting most of the touches. For the Pats, after losing Tom Brady, Matt Cassel has shown that he's better than just a mediocre backup. Last week he threw for 400 yards, and 3 TD against the Division leading Jets. The thing that impressed me the most about Cassel was his final drive. The Pats got the ball on their own 38 with 1:04, needing a touchdown to tie the game. Cassel delivered a 16 yard pass to Randy Moss with 1 second left on the clock, to give them exactly what they needed. The fact they lost the game I attribute to losing the coin toss. If they had won the toss, they probably would've drove down and kicked a field goal. My look on this game is that the Dolphins are a team that is overachieving and the Patriots are a team that is underacheiving.

Players to Watch

Patriots: QB Matt Cassel (2200 yards, 10 TD): Let's see if Cassel can follow up his career game last week, with another big game when the Pats really need it.
Dolphins: RB Ronnie Brown (605 yards, 9 TD): Last time these two teams met, Brown had four (FOUR) touchdown runs and over 100 yards rushins, with a pass TD as well. Let's see if he can repeat those astonishing stats.

The Pick

The Patriots are a very good team, they're only missing Tom Brady from being amazing, but Matt Cassel is starting to get more comfortable in the starting role, and I think this is a very good, and underrated Patriots team. On the other hand, the Dolphins have won their past 4 games, but only one of them over an above .500 team (Denver). I look for Matt Cassel to have another big game, and the Patriots defense to rebound from their embarassing performance against the Jets last week. The Dolphins offense doesn't have any playmakers, and I look for them to not have a great week. I like the Pats to win this one.
Patriots 35- Dolphins 21



Still to come....... New York Giants at Arizona

NFL and College Pick 'Em

Here are the standings through 4 weeks of Pick 'Em:

NFL

1. Mike: (10-10-1)
1. Hankin: (10-10-1)
3. Gordie: (7-13-1)
4. Henry: (1-3-1)

College

1. Henry: (3-1-1)
2. Mike: (11-5-2)
3. Hankin: (9-7-2)
4: Gordie: (6-10-2)

Henry missed the first few episodes of the show, due to soccer. We figure that we'll do it by winning percentage for right now, so that is why Henry's 1st in College.

New Blog

Hello to all the WNTH listeners out there, and "Overtime" fans. We're proud to bring the "Silver Mic" award winning show to the Internet. Our plans are to have weekly sports columns, and recaps of our shows, and of course, all of our cycles. We will also put our predictions from NFL and College pick 'em so you know how we're doing. Thanks!